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The Pinnacle Pulse -- The Inside Super Bowl Betting Line From PinnacleSports.com
6 February 2006 Now that it's Super Bowl week, bettors can celebrate having more betting options on this game than any other all year, as the one thing the Super Bowl is known for is the amount of proposition bets offered. At Pinnacle Sportsbook (www.pinnaclesports.com) you can bet on everything from the coin toss to the best Super Bowl commercial.
Although some of these proposition bets seem exotic, they're a great way for smaller players to increase their bankroll. Normally there's only one person setting the line instead of a dozen odds makers who form the market for a side/total line on pro sports. Therefore when you wager on a proposition, it's typically your opinion versus just one odds maker.
Sports books know that propositions are dangerous. The risk of setting a bad price forces most online sportsbooks to use a 30 or 40-cent line on props. At the Pinnacle Sports Book, we always offer consistent value to the player by using a 10 or 16-cent line on our proposition wagers for internet betting, giving players up to 75% better value than other bookmakers.
The biggest mistake players and odds makers make when evaluating props is not understanding the difference between the median and the mean. For example, consider this NFC Championship game prop -- «Will the first score be more than 24.5 yards?» During the game, there were scores from distances of 17, 1, 59, 39, 20, 1 and 47 yards. The average (mean) distance was 26.3 yards. If that were the only analysis, the «Yes» would be a favorite, since the average is more than 24.5.
The correct way to analyze these types of props is to use the median. If you list the score lengths in ascending order, the median is the middle number:
1
1
17
20 (median)
39
47
59
If you knew there'd be these seven scores, you'd price the «No» knowing the under would hit four out of seven times, making the no-vig price on the «No» -133 (-4/3*100). In this instance, the first scoring play of the game was a 17-yard touchdown pass.
Although this concept is simple, it pays dividends to anyone who spends time calculating the median. The median is useful on all types of props -- from «length of first rush» to the «longest/shortest» props (where you use the median result from games for the whole season). There are two straightforward ways to accurately price these props.
First, you'll want to use as much data as possible. Seattle has played 18 games, giving a much better estimate of a fair mid-point. Then you'll want to adjust your data for the opponent, so consider the distribution of scores by the Steelers this season. Also ignore some data for games that aren't similar to the Super Bowl. Sharp bettors might only use data where the Seahawks were no more than a 7-point favorite, assuming they won't get as many long, easy scores as they did against weak opponents like Arizona.
In addition to filtering the data, you can also «tweak» it. Let's examine the following Super Bowl prop -- «Total pass completions by Hassleback (over/under 21.5)». His median on the season is 20, but he had more completions in games that Seattle lost or won by less than 7 points. Similarly, Pittsburgh allowed more completions in games they narrowly lost or won outright. If you go on the premise that Seattle won't blow out Pittsburgh, it makes sense to adjust the number of completions for Hasselback upwards. This shouldn't come as a surprise because teams don't usually run on third and long if the outcome is still in doubt.
Try to apply the ideas above on the proposition wagers offered for internet betting at PinnacleSports.com:
Seattle (+4) v Pittsburgh; ML +176/-186
At the start of the week, we were trading Seattle at +3.5 and we‘ve taken twice as many bets on the Seahawks as the Steelers. The sharps have expressed a clear opinion on the Seahawks – nearly all of the $100,000 limit bets we've taken are on Seattle at +3.5 and +4. The line now sees the Steelers favored by -4 (-109).
Some professionals also favor Seattle on the moneyline. Despite $50,000 moneyline limits, we're taking many limit bets on the Seahawks. The price on the moneyline at Pinnacle Sportsbetting is Seattle +176 and Pittsburgh -186.
Bettis (PIT) Score a Rushing TD? (Yes –171)
This is a difficult-to-price proposition with Bettis scoring TDs in 7 of the last 8 games. We initially opened the yes at –140, and took balanced action. The public clearly favors the yes, while the no is backed by several professional prop players. Players find Super Bowl props especially lucrative, as public money often drives the price off the fair number. This allows the pros to get multiple limit bets at a good price, instead of just one bet on more obscure props the public doesn't bet.
Hassleback Completions Under 21.5 (–130)
We opened the number at under 21.5 (–116) and saw moderate two-way action. Many propositions like this are correlated to the game result. If Seattle takes a large lead or plays a close game, players find value in the under as the Seahawks would attempt fewer passes. In a Seattle win or blowout, you'd expect less passes and completions from Hasselback and more rushing attempts and yards from Alexander.
Pinnacle Sports Book & Online Betting
Pinnacle Sportsbook (www.pinnaclesports.com) is an online betting company providing the best odds on sportsbook gambling, online horseracing, online casino gaming, and online poker.
With excellent 24/7 customer service, fast payouts, and secure Internet betting, Pinnacle Sports Book satisfies all your sports book betting requirements and game wagering needs.
The Pinnacle Sports Book also offers reduced juice betting lines and rebates of up to 7% on its sportsbook wagering so sign-up now with Pinnacle SportsBook Betting and get wagering today.
Source: prweb
All trademarks and copyrighted information contained herein are the property of their respective owners.
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